Around this time in 2022, many religious leaders and preachers were all over the place, making predictions that Mr. Peter Obi, then the candidate of the Labour Party, would win the Nigerian Presidential Election the following year. Many of these preachers claimed they heard from God that there must be a change of power in Nigeria in 2023. Deceived by the frenzy they see on social media, these preachers offered their podiums to Mr. Obi to speak to their congregations. It was brazen and bizarre that preachers were so easily misled by their own imaginations. God cannot be mocked, and God cannot lie. “Have I said a thing and not done it,” the Lord says in Numbers 23:19. God’s sovereignty is without debate. So whoever says God said to him when God did not must learn to fear God.
Fast forward to 2023, Mr. Peter Obi of the Labour Party lost to Mr. Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), and many of the preachers went wild. They did not seek the face of God for direction moving forward. Instead, they continued in their error, masking their political preferences under the cover of “God told me.” Indeed, preachers have the right to have their own preferred candidate in an election, but their preferred candidate is not necessarily the will of God. This point must never be lost on our preachers who dabble in politics and dress their preferences as prophecies. After the election with a clear winner and losers, many preachers went ahead to feed their listeners with more confusion, claiming that the then President-Elect, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, will never be president because he will never be sworn in. Some even made allusions that Mr. Tinubu would either be dead before his swearing-in or be removed by the Presidential Election Tribunal. Eventually, none of those happened. President Tinubu has now been president for three years and is now standing for re-election.
Three years down the line, what has changed? Nigerian preachers, who “prophesied” that Mr. Obi would win the 2023 Presidential Election, have not taken responsibility for their false prophecies. They have refused to hold themselves accountable. However, they have smartly distanced themselves from repeating their 2023 failed prediction. As many may have observed, preachers are not as quick to jump into the ring of 2027 politics as they did ahead of the 2023 Presidential Election.
Nigerian preachers, like other Nigerians, have a right and a duty to support their preferred candidate in any election. But they must not confuse their preferences with the will of God. Politics is not like every other human endeavour. For a country like Nigeria, it is even far more complex.
On the flip side, the conditions that led to Mr. Obi losing the 2023 Presidential Election have now multiplied many times over. Yet, somehow, some people have refused to apply the 2023 lessons. For instance, politics is about numbers, and contrary to what Obi’s supporters said in 2023, structures indeed matter. On numbers, even if 100% of Southeast and South-South votes go to Obi or any candidate, it is not enough to produce Nigeria’s president. But in contrast, APC as a party, given its North-West alliance, can produce a Nigerian President with zero votes from both Southeast and South-South. The question of governance can only make sense when a party or an individual has been given the political mandate to govern. This is why Mr. Obi’ closest call to Aso Rock would have been through an alliance with Atiku. This is true both in 2023 and in 2027. Although both scenarios will soon be history, one must first get political power before the dream of what to do with it crystallizes. In this regard, not much was learnt from 2023. An incumbent cannot be removed by a divided opposition in a country like Nigeria.
As 2027 now counts in weeks and days, the question remains: what new conditions or political alliances inform any hope of removing an incumbent President like Bola Tinubu? In Nigeria’s history, this is the first time a President seeking re-election has stronger structural and sub-national support than in his first term. President Olusegun Obasanjo fought hard for his second term, with governors divided over his re-election bid. President Godluck Jonathan fought hard for his second term with governors divided, and he was eventually removed. President Muhammadu Buhari fought hard, with less support from sub-nationals, but pulled through with APC’s North-West alliance, which is still intact today. But President Bola Tinubu consolidated support at the sub-national level nationwide, with support from all State Governors, except perhaps Governor Makinde. Given this circumstance, how exactly would the outcome of the 2027 Presidential Election be different?
In the final analysis, opposition to President Tinubu in 2027 might just be to make the point that he was opposed, as one would expect in a democracy, but not to remove him because there is no way around it.
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