Ebuka Onyekwelu Ph.D
The 2027 General Election now appears far more consequential to future presidential aspirants from the Southeast zone than it is for the current President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu. With all Southeast governors having an affiliation with the President, who is about to run for a second term, the possibility of all five governors having future presidential ambitions is arguably in plain sight. Chances are high that these governors who have eyes on the presidency or vice presidential nomination at least in 2031 on the platform of the ruling APC are pushing the President’s second term bid. But indeed, they must think beyond Tinubu’s return next year.
Based on a modest projection, assuming the conventional rotation of power between South and North remains constant, the Southeast may produce a presidential candidate on the APC platform by 2035. But by 2031, a Southeasterner might deputize a Northern APC presidential candidate. How this plays out is heavily dependent on how a contender has positioned politically to take the shine. I suspect, generally, this has heightened the attention of politicians from the Southeast who are joining the APC. As of now, the Southeast has three serving governors who are members of the APC. The governor of Anambra State, Professor Charles Soludo, is not in APC, but he has since adopted President Tinubu of APC as his candidate in 2027. Perhaps, there has not been any other time Southeast governors have been more ambitious than now. But picking the vice presidential ticket of the APC in 2031 or becoming a presidential candidate in 2035 is beyond what they do for President Tinubu in 2027.
First of all, for the governors of Imo and Anambra, the 2027 General Election is their last before exiting office. In the present league of Southeast governors, both Uzodimma and Soludo have their individual strengths in the nation’s political landscape. Both are also positioned as potential choices for the Vice Presidential slot in 2031, but at the time, they won’t be governors. Between Governor Soludo and Governor Hope, Soludo might generally be considered a better pick on the strength of his academic background and exposure, but politics doesn’t necessarily consider such advantages as crucial requirements in the selection processes. This is why 2027 matters to serving governors who have set eyes on national politics in 2031 or 2035, beyond Tinubu’s victory.
National political contest is a contest of influence. This is why an Atiku can pick the ticket of his choice party. This is also why Tinubu can pick the ticket of the APC without definite support from the former president. Nigeria’s presidential election is a contest of influence in which contenders deploy their best eleven, who are already in positions of sizable influence in the polity. Mainstream matters because it is more realistic to win a presidential contest with a mainstream party than otherwise.
Ahead of 2027, political players who are eyeing the Vice Presidential slot or the Presidential ticket of the APC in 2031 or 2035 must move their men and women ahead of them. The greatest challenge for any ambitious politician of Southeast extraction is to recruit people who will be deployed into the polity and who will return the favour in the next four or eight years. Every national politician is as strong and relevant as his own foot soldiers are. Therefore, beyond Tinubu’s victory next year, serious contenders must look ahead. The competition following the exit of Tinubu in 2031 will be a competition of men strategically positioned to horn in on the ambitions of their benefactors. Presidential walk is not a lone walk. It is a walk with a powerful and influential team.
As the 2027 General Election ticks faster, ambitious Southeast politicians thinking ahead of 2027 must maximize their influence power, and place people who will join hands in pursuit of their ambitions. Weight matters in political calculations. A look at the result of the 2022 APC primaries speaks to this. Results in politics often reflect political weight. Who speaks for one’s ambition or identifies with his ambition matters. It is the job of a prospective presidential material or vice presidential nominee to raise strong, but loyal allies and deploy them to the State and National Assembly. It is also his job to raise competent and credible people and surround himself with them as part of his negotiation currency. A serving senator can offer more assistance to his benefactor running for president in the scheme of internal party affairs than otherwise. A credible voice can offer far more value to a presidential hopeful than just one of many supporters without acceptable credentials. The implication of this is that Southeast governors who are eyeing the presidency as Vice President in 2031 or as a presidential candidate in 2035 must carefully select young and solid men and women whom they will deploy deliberately across diverse corners of power points in Nigeria as their forerunners in the years ahead.
Any serious contender who intends to emerge as a significant contender in 2035 or who seeks consideration as the Vice Presidential candidate of the APC in 2031 must clinically lay the foundation, block by block, through the quality of men and women deployed into the system, who will, in turn, serve as credible structures to deliver his mandate.
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